There’s no other candidate with the record to legitimately say they’re:
Many in the 2012 Republican race, along with Obama and potential primary challengers, will espouse similar positions. They don’t mean it. If/when they’re elected, those promises will be tossed out the window like a trucker bomb.
By far the most likely outcome — outside of a Paul win — is Obushma 3.0. Maybe a few more bank shenanigans under Dems, more energy-wars under GOP. Let’s not settle for “less war”, or “less financial repression”.
So many smart people I talk to, left & right, still believe Ron Paul is “crazy”, “fringe”. Some are scared of change and hard choices. Others appreciate what little they know of Mr. Paul, yet remain closeted or non-committed.
Many simply don’t want to handle the social implications of supporting a non-traditional candidate. Friends/family may change their view of you when they find out you support Ron Paul. “I hear he’s crazy”, your ferret-hoarding aunt may say.
Skeptical reactions are understandable and expected. Every RP fan is a new one, at some point. Overcoming deeply-instilled political beliefs isn’t easy. For me, it comes down to this: Ron Paul is a smart and principled man, he’s been saying the same thing for 40+ years. Read his books, read his economic influences. Learn about his foreign policy stances. Then make your own decision; he wouldn’t have it any other way.
Greece is slowly sliding towards the inevitable. Namely a big, meaty haircut for bondholders. Of course, the banks and financiers will not take losses lying down. They will demand asset sales, and higher taxes. Greece will suffer along for a while.
Fitch today said Greece has entered “selective default” due to the private sector involvement in the latest kick-the-can schemery. These short-term fixes will be attempted, even though they seem destined to fail.
Greece must get out from under its enormous debt load to have any chance at real growth in the next decade. When these half measures and schemes do fail, how big of a hit will bondholders need to take?
We have long thought that the most likely outcome for Greek bondholders would be that they would take a small haircut first followed by a larger one at a later date. To give Greece a fighting chance they probably need a write down close to 65 percent.
An eventual agreement on debt haircuts will only be one part of a wider agreement and reform efforts, of course. But it will be crucial in order to get the people and Unions to agree. Banks and other entities who own the bonds will simply have to take losses. It will be ugly, with insurance companies and all sorts of firms caught up in the financial chaos. But it’s going to happen, and the sooner it does, the sooner Southern Europe can return to real growth.