The clip below is from 1991, at a Spina Bifida Foundation roast of Pat Buchanan. Rockefeller’s jokes about protecting the rich, joining the Trilateral Commission, and world domination are all quite interesting. Despite what you may hear, these are real organizations. They have real agendas. For example, Mario Monti, recently-installed “technocrat” head of Italy, chairs the group’s European operations. More after the clip.

By the way Pat, do you bank with Chase Manhattan?

Some people immediately tune out at the mention of a group like the Trilateral Commission. Don’t get all conspiracy theory on me bro. Call groups like this what you will, they’re quite real. I can’t vouch for their intentions, as I haven’t been invited yet.

But we can get some insight from contemporary historical accounts. Such as this one from the great libertarian economist Murray Rothbard:

Alan is a long-time member of the famed Trilateral Commission, the Rockefeller-dominated pinnacle of the financial-political power elite in this country. And as he assumes his post as head of the Fed, he leaves his honored place on the board of directors of J.P Morgan & Co. and Morgan Guaranty Trust. Yes, the Establishment has good reason to sleep soundly with Greenspan at our monetary helm. And as icing on the cake, they know that Greenspan’s “philosophical” Randianism will undoubtedly fool many free market advocates into thinking that a champion of their cause now perches high in the seats of power.

Love Rothbard. More at Mises.org.

Bill Black’s cleverly-titled book, The Best Way to Rob a Bank Is to Own One, is on sale at Amazon. Also see his interview with Bill Moyers from 2009, a classic.

Mr. Black was also kind enough to do a brief interview with me a few years back, which you can find here. This is my favorite part:

#3) Me: Do you feel that your outspoken views preclude you from future government appointments?

Mr. Black: My crucial CLGs (“career limiting gestures”) were being a serial whistleblower and helping to cause two presidential appointees (i.e., my bosses) to resign in disgrace.  I also played some role in Speaker Wright’s decision to resign in disgrace and the embarrassment of the Keating Five.  Pointing out that Geithner was selected because he was a perennial failure and moral cripple, not despite these defects, pales in comparison to those CLGs.

#4) Adam: If offered a top government regulatory post, would you consider taking it?

Mr. Black: Yes.

Rogers warns against such economic blunders, noting “We had a trade war in the 1930′s, it led to the Great Depression.”

Shortly after that bludgeoning remark, Rogers adds “We already have small signs of trade wars breaking out in Brazil, France, other places, now America. This could be very dangerous in the end.”

Use the search function (top-right) to find more Jim Rogers stuff. Lots of videos in the archive from this wise investor.

Check It:

1) Jim Rogers Supports Ron Paul
2) Ron Paul 2012 Plug - Shameless

• Investment of the last decade was gold, this decade’s will be silver.
• Eventually gold/silver ratio will return to 16:1 (at today’s gold prices, silver would be = $100).
• Demand for silver & gold reaching near 1:1.
• Silver could explode “at any time”.
• Silver will be volatile, but at the end of the day holders should be able to “sleep at night”, and “be big winners at the end of the day”.

Also see Harvey Organ’s latest update on gold & silver, including inventory data (declining rapidly).

(disclosure: long silver/gold.)

Offers fascinating perspective on Chinese reverse-merger stocks, and how the situation is similar to early industrial America where, “the foreigners got fleeced, constantly”.

He reiterates that QE3 will come, but not as early as some would like. The Fed needs markets to fall a bit first. Oil (consumers feel most), gold/silver (unofficial inflation gauges), stocks (EEK – My 401k is dropping, print!). Worth watching (shot last week):

I do wonder how low silver could go this year, before QE3 comes to the rescue fall/winter (best guess). In 2008 silver surpassed the $20 mark, only to be knocked back down to ~$9 by the credit crunch. Could silver retrace as much this time? I don’t think it’s all that likely, or I would’ve sold some physical.

Inflation is higher now, meaning the Fed will have a tougher time selling QE3. Will markets need to drop further, to compensate? Oil markets are buying the new deflation theme, thanks in part to that perfectly-timed strategic reserve release.

Then again, silver inventories are pitifully low at COMEX. Is a mass squeeze on naked shorts really possible? I don’t know. So many factors to consider.

By Jesse of Jesse’s Cafe Americain

“It appears that there is an undeliverable force heading towards an unmanageable object.”

At some point the shysters will lose control of the monetary papier-mâché which they have created. And the subsequent reaction could be epic, with the almost inevitable force of nature, like a tsunami rolling in.

Only a few people understand this. So it could be quite the surprise to many.

In the meantime the bankers and politicians are scrambling for the goodies pouring out of the financial piñata which they cracked open in the financial crisis.

The banks have plenty of gold to lease into the bullion banks, and then on into the markets and as collateral for leveraged paper obligations. But they are running out of silver, which causes me to believe that the silver cartel will break first, and will lead the way higher, as it has been doing.  A handful of Too Big To Fail Banks seem to be short more silver than can possibly be delivered without incurring terrific losses, even by today’s distorted standards.  From the looks of it, it appears that there is an undeliverable force heading towards an unmanageable object. Further complicating matters is the possibility of a magnitude 9.6 sovereign debt earthquake in the markets.

Unless there is some forced settlement, some draconian government intervention, silver appears to be a leading candidate for the manipulated market most likely to go super nova.

If the equity market does not fall apart over Greece et al., I would imagine that the trading desks will try to stand on the metals until a little closer to quarter end, then its elevator going up. But watch out for a Greek related problem. I am not sure how the markets might react to this if it really is another Lehman like event. So as you might expect I am running a paired trade, and net short into the close.

The dollar chart is a big problematic. I can make a scenario for a break either higher or lower from the chart. I think we will know the move when it comes, but predicting it in advance is a dicey thing, except for the broken clocks.

If the sovereign default situation goes badly there *could* be a liquidation selloff that would impact silver, and to some extent gold. This is why I am holding paired trades that are short stocks and long bullion. I further adjusted the risk downward today, and lengthened the shorts.

Re-published with author permission.

The Paul campaign is pushing to raise $5m by the end of this quarter (in 7 days) They’ve already raised $3.2m so far in this drive. An impressive take for a grassroots campaign. No $36k-A-PLATE dinners like Pres. Obama staged tonight in Manhattan (one of three fundraisers today).

If the thought of Ron Paul shaking up the DC status quo intrigues you, consider donating here.

via Redditarians.

The miners were rallying with stocks and the metals today, as one might expect.

In the short term the markets will move on the Greek debt situation, the FOMC monetary policy decision tomorrow, and to some more individual extent the Russell 2000 rebalancing on Friday.

Gold looks to be on the verge of breaking out. Let’s see if they can do it. A great deal will depend on macroeconomic and political events in the short term.

I have included a second gold chart which shows the chart formations should the breakout be confirmed after the July Comex options expiration, and the sturm und drang which follows for a few days afterward.

JP Morgan may wish to plug in a new ‘cost of doing business’ item in their budget for the commodities trading group.  And Ben may need to keep a little ‘walking away’ money at hand for his cronies.

FT
JPMorgan settles SEC charges for $153m
By Kara Scannell in New York
June 21 2011 19:01

JPMorgan Chase agreed to pay $153.6m to resolve US Securities and Exchange Commission civil fraud charges that it misled investors in a mortgage-related security it constructed for Magnetar, an Illinois hedge fund.

The SEC charged JP Morgan with failing to disclose to investors in the collateralised debt obligation, a security linked to mortgage-backed securities, the role played by Magnetar.

The hedge fund helped select mortgages included in the CDO, named Squared, and was betting against them. The SEC alleged that investors were told that an independent firm, GSC Capital, had selected the portfolio.

JPMorgan agreed to settle and reimburse investors in the CDO without admitting or denying wrong-doing. The settlement also requires JPMorgan to change how it reviews and approves offerings of certain mortgage securities.

Visit Jesse’s Cafe, where he blogs daily. Published with author permission.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – and Le US Douleur – More Volatility Ahead for Silver

Silver was hit harder as the US equities fell, and gold maintained some resilience.

The intraday moves had the character of bear raids and sharp selling in size, rather than steady liquidation.

Notice that the dollar too was weaker today, although it remains in a short term uptrend.

The number of contracts standing for May delivery of silver ROSE today according to Harvey Organ. The Comex delivered no actual silver, but the trading desks offered plenty of paper, as overall open interest rose again.

Someone asked me what it might be like if the Comex was unable to meet its deliveries, and there was a  cascading effect to the metals encumbered by counterparty risk in the two big ETFs, if they were hit by a wave of redemptions as large shareholders sought to lock in supply.

I did not see their scenario of multiple days of up limits until the market clears, simply because it seems to be a few large members important to the exchange who seem to be ‘holding the bag’  in this case.  Market solutions are for the little people and relative outsiders like the Hunt Brothers.

Rather, I would anticipate a declaration of force majeure, and a forced settlement in cash and shares of SLV, which themselves are probably representations of bullion rather than the metal itself.   I do not know what the rationale for this might be, and it is not quite clear to me that they would even need one except for cosmetic purposes.

When you have power and have learned to use it with ruthless hypocrisy, the only thing you need to respond to is a greater force of power that calls you to accounts. This is one of the great lessons from the recent financial crisis.  When the government and the regulators do not uphold their responsibilities, fraud becomes fashionable.

The Comex has about 32 million ounces of deliverable silver on their books, and they are dragging out the delivery process each month, as virtually no new inventory becomes available to replenish their supply.

I was a little shocked that the parabolic rise in price and  the subsequent calculated smackdown in conjunction with the increased margin requirements shook no new significant inventory loose for the dealers, only more paper profits. Customer withdrawals continue as well, with almost 3.5 million ounces leaving this month.

However it transpires, if it does, it will be memorable.   I am looking at the supply and demand as the numbers are published, and not at anything esoteric or private.  So I would imagine that the CFTC and the least sophisticated traders in the market can see the same things unfolding.  I hear things from time to time about back room discussions about the resolution of all this, and have to work to separate them from the tide disinformation, of which there is quite a bit more than you might imagine.  People are very concerned about a potential shock to the credibility of the system.  Of course, they may be utterly out of touch with current reality.  Trust is in short supply, and the natives are growing restless.

Rumours, and disparaging talk, and theoretical discussions are well and good, but as they say, show me the money, or in this case, the bullion.

Where is it, how much of there is it, and what are they going to do when and if the supply of silver bullion drops below 30 million ounces deliverable, which is really a pittance given the size of the market? A silver futures contract on Comex is 5,000 ounces, and so that represents a mere 6,000 contracts.  There are a total of 123,000 contracts open today.  Last Friday the volume was an eye popping 126,000 contracts!  This at times seems less a market, and more a game of musical chairs, or a shell game.  And if the allegations are true about the LBMA,  and their leverage, then what we have here may be a recipe for a severe market dislocation.

And this is why I expect the silver market to remain highly volatile, with some amazing moves ahead, both up and down. And stretchers perhaps, to carry out some players from the pits, as they get caught offside in high frequency moves, and an increasingly disorderly trade. And this due to the failure to reform the financial system.

And for us, the smaller investors, caution is advised.

Sopranos with Swords is an unofficial slogan being thrown around, but I prefer Lord of the Rings for grown folk.

Episode 5 just aired, and it was a good one. I won’t dish any spoilers.

The series is based on the excellent series of books by George R. R. Martin, A Song of Ice and Fire. There are 4 books so far, another is done and due out shortly. 7 books are planned eventually, and if all goes according to plan, each book gets a season on HBO. 10-12 1 hr episodes per season.

I picked up the books in 2004, and started collecting first editions of A Game of Thrones (aGOT) around 3 years ago when the HBO pilot was announced. I own around a dozen at last count. And though it’s not really an invesment, per se, on an ROI-basis it would probably look good on paper (not that I plan on selling).

As one of the few geeks who has followed the market for aGOT first editions,  I’ve noticed recently that high-quality copies have become quite scarce on the market. And if the books were a stock, they’d be in a very bullish price trend. Some that sold for $75 2 years ago are fetching $500 today. But volume is light, there are only 39 “first editions” listed on the leading used/rare book site Abe Books. At least half are garbage and outrageously priced.

First edition books are an interesting market. Low volume, small number of sellers, very few people who dabble in it as an investment, and lots of (mostly wealthy, myself excluded) collectors.

Last year I bought the aGOT geek’s holy grail, an as-new limited special edition A Game of Thrones published by Meisha Merlin in 2003. Beautiful version of the book, slipcased and illustrated gorgeously. Signed and numbered by the author, as well as the artists (pic right).

Only 448 were printed, with an original price of $250.

Technically, the numbered Meisha Merlin books are not the true holy grail. There is a lettered edition of which only 52 were printed. Don’t even try, unless you’re prepared to write a really big check. From what I understand all the lettereds are held by rabid fans and insiders, and all of the insiders are rabid fans. The series is that good.

There are currently only three Meisha Merlin numbereds I can find online today. Two on Amazon, priced at $1800 and $2495. There’s one on Abe Books for $2495. Obviously, I cannot vouch for the sellers, but those prices seem to be roughly in line with what other copies were selling for earlier this year. The market for lettered/numbered books is tiny compared to regular British and American first editions.

A few years back Mr. Martin did a FAQ about collecting first editions. It’s dated (so no, you cannot buy MMs for $250 any more, and I found his price estimates to be slightly inflated at the time, though they are likely conservative now) but still relevant:

Q:  How do I know if I have a first edition of A GAME OF THRONES? Which was the first edition, anyway? What is it worth?

A:  There have been five hardcover editions of A GAME OF THRONES published in English to date.

The Bantam 1996 edition was the true first, as I see things. It had a silver foil cover with an embossed throne but no other illustration. That one has become quite valuable, and seems to sell for $200 to $600 (depending on condition), the last time I checked.

The HarperCollins/ Voyager 1996 edition was the British first. Its official publication date was earlier than that of the Bantam edition, but Bantam went to print several months early to hand out copies at the ABA, so I consider theirs the true first. However, the British edition had a much smaller print run. As a consequence, it is much rarer, and even more valuable. I’ve seen it selling for anywhere from $800 to $1500 on the internet.

Then came the SF Book Club edition. A smaller size hardcover, it used the Bantam cover, but was a dull grey instead of bright silver. You see this one listed on ebay frequently. Some sellers are honest enough to list it as the SFBC edition. Others just call it the “hardcover,” trying to pass it off as the first. You can join the SFBC and get the book for around $12 even now, so it’s foolish to pay $50 or more for the same thing on ebay.

The Meisha Merlin limited edition was slipcased, signed, and numbered, and featured artwork by Jeffrey Jones and Charles Keegan. That came out in 2001. It was limited to 52 lettered copies and 448 numbered. The lettered are all sold out, but numbered copies remain available from Meisha Merlin at $250. It is easily the most beautiful edition of the novel, a real treat for a collector who loves fine books.

In June 2002 Bantam went back to press and released a second edition of their hardcover. That’s the one available in the bookstores now. Silver foil cover, but the paperback cover art (a Steve Youll painting of Jon Snow and Ghost with a burning castle in the background) is inset within the foil, giving the book the same “look” as the hardcovers of A CLASH OF KINGS and A STORM OF SWORDS. Unfortunately, the numeral “1″ was not removed from the print history line on the copyright page, leading some people to think this is a first edition, first printing. It’s not. It’s a second printing, and it’s worth the cover price.

I really do suggest reading the books if you’re into this sort of fiction. It’s my favorite series of all time, by far. Time Magazine called Martin the American Tolkien, but really, he’s much better. To my pleasant surprise, the HBO series is doing his work justice.

Here’s a link to the first book on Amazon – A Game of Thrones.