h/t Silver Doctors

So thanks to Dave Pinsen and the guys over there. My blogging productivity is at near-year lows, thanks to the new precious. And my 24 mo kid monopolizes it if I take it out around him. Two, and he plays Angry Birds. By himself. I’m glad I won this thing, because I probably wouldn’t have swallowed my anti-Apple pride and bought one.

The goal of the contest was to make a compelling short case, to be voted upon by their premium members. My pick, DEER, a Chinese consumer firm with (alleged) book issues fell from around $9 to $8 during the month ($6.69 today.)

They have some nice-looking tools for screening out short opportunities, and an App called Portfolio Armor that helps you find the cheapest puts to hedge long positions. Check it out.

Gold Daily and Silver Weekly Charts – and Le US Douleur – More Volatility Ahead for Silver

Silver was hit harder as the US equities fell, and gold maintained some resilience.

The intraday moves had the character of bear raids and sharp selling in size, rather than steady liquidation.

Notice that the dollar too was weaker today, although it remains in a short term uptrend.

The number of contracts standing for May delivery of silver ROSE today according to Harvey Organ. The Comex delivered no actual silver, but the trading desks offered plenty of paper, as overall open interest rose again.

Someone asked me what it might be like if the Comex was unable to meet its deliveries, and there was a  cascading effect to the metals encumbered by counterparty risk in the two big ETFs, if they were hit by a wave of redemptions as large shareholders sought to lock in supply.

I did not see their scenario of multiple days of up limits until the market clears, simply because it seems to be a few large members important to the exchange who seem to be ‘holding the bag’  in this case.  Market solutions are for the little people and relative outsiders like the Hunt Brothers.

Rather, I would anticipate a declaration of force majeure, and a forced settlement in cash and shares of SLV, which themselves are probably representations of bullion rather than the metal itself.   I do not know what the rationale for this might be, and it is not quite clear to me that they would even need one except for cosmetic purposes.

When you have power and have learned to use it with ruthless hypocrisy, the only thing you need to respond to is a greater force of power that calls you to accounts. This is one of the great lessons from the recent financial crisis.  When the government and the regulators do not uphold their responsibilities, fraud becomes fashionable.

The Comex has about 32 million ounces of deliverable silver on their books, and they are dragging out the delivery process each month, as virtually no new inventory becomes available to replenish their supply.

I was a little shocked that the parabolic rise in price and  the subsequent calculated smackdown in conjunction with the increased margin requirements shook no new significant inventory loose for the dealers, only more paper profits. Customer withdrawals continue as well, with almost 3.5 million ounces leaving this month.

However it transpires, if it does, it will be memorable.   I am looking at the supply and demand as the numbers are published, and not at anything esoteric or private.  So I would imagine that the CFTC and the least sophisticated traders in the market can see the same things unfolding.  I hear things from time to time about back room discussions about the resolution of all this, and have to work to separate them from the tide disinformation, of which there is quite a bit more than you might imagine.  People are very concerned about a potential shock to the credibility of the system.  Of course, they may be utterly out of touch with current reality.  Trust is in short supply, and the natives are growing restless.

Rumours, and disparaging talk, and theoretical discussions are well and good, but as they say, show me the money, or in this case, the bullion.

Where is it, how much of there is it, and what are they going to do when and if the supply of silver bullion drops below 30 million ounces deliverable, which is really a pittance given the size of the market? A silver futures contract on Comex is 5,000 ounces, and so that represents a mere 6,000 contracts.  There are a total of 123,000 contracts open today.  Last Friday the volume was an eye popping 126,000 contracts!  This at times seems less a market, and more a game of musical chairs, or a shell game.  And if the allegations are true about the LBMA,  and their leverage, then what we have here may be a recipe for a severe market dislocation.

And this is why I expect the silver market to remain highly volatile, with some amazing moves ahead, both up and down. And stretchers perhaps, to carry out some players from the pits, as they get caught offside in high frequency moves, and an increasingly disorderly trade. And this due to the failure to reform the financial system.

And for us, the smaller investors, caution is advised.

By Simon Black

April 18, 2011
Asuncion, Paraguay

When I woke up this morning and scanned through my usual digest– boots on the ground reports from overseas contacts, market summaries from Asian and European bankers, commentary from friends still in the intelligence community– a couple of things caught my eye that I want to tell you about.

Dagong Global Credit Rating Co is China’s leading credit rating agency. Credit rating agencies are the firms who are responsible, among other things, for scoring the credit risk of a particular asset or sovereign nation.

When they rate a security as “AAA”, premium safety, investors pile in. They’re an integral part of the financial system.

You undoubtedly remember that the world’s leading agencies– Fitch, Moody’s, and S&P, were all complicit in slapping AAA premium ratings on so many toxic mortgage-backed securities… and maintaining sound ratings for far too long on bankrupt nations like Greece and Portugal.

The entire industry lacks credibility at this point, and China’s Dagong agency aims to do something about that.

This morning I read Dagong president Guan Jianzhong’s remarks at a recent conference of Asian rating agency CEOs held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (one of my favorite cities).

In his speech, Guan called for the establishment of a global rating agency that follows clearly outlined international standards, effectively putting an end to the cowardly analysis that dominates the industry now and replacing it with a healthy dose of reality.

Putting its money where its mouth is, Dagong has a long-standing, negative outlook on US debt that doesn’t pull any punches. From its November 2010 report:

“In essence the depreciation of the U.S. dollar adopted by the U.S. government indicates that its solvency is on the brink of collapse, therefore it wants to cut its debt through the act of devaluation with the national will; such a move has severely harmed the interests of creditors.”

Following suit, S&P stunned financial markets this morning by revising its US outlook to ‘negative’, citing politicians’ inability to address medium-term and long-term challenges.

In total contrast, US News and World Report published an article a few days ago entitled Why you should buy U.S. Treasuries,” which amounts to the worst advice I’ve seen in years.

"Trust me, I'm good for it."

The article is devoid of any clear analysis which could support loaning our hard-earned savings to the most indebted nation in the history of the world in a rapidly depreciating currency at rates which have little chance of keeping up with inflation; instead, the author relies solely on patriotism:

“It has always been a bad idea to bet against America and our ability to prosper even against overwhelming difficulties. America will cut back its spending, innovate, and pay off its debts. We will earn our way out. It’s just how we do it…”

A more accurate statement would have been, “that’s how we used to do it…” Fact is, America’s economic problems are deep-seeded and neither political party can put forth a viable strategy for righting the ship. Even S&P is starting to realize this.

Even worse, it’s not just the politicians that don’t get it. From top to bottom, the culture in government service is an entrenched “me first [at the expense of taxpayers...]” attitude which encourages shortsighted decision making, and in some cases, even fraud.

If you’re still betting on America to come out on top, you’re taking a big risk. America first emerged as a major economic power, not because of government policies or political leadership, but because of the strong incentive that individual Americans had to work hard, take risks, and create value for others.

The incentive isn’t about patriotism… it’s about the benefit of their families and loved ones.

Americans like this still exist, and their desire to see their families and loved ones flourish through enterprise and value creation is as strong as ever. As the economic situation worsens with each passing day, more and more of these value creators look to greener pastures outside of America.

Maybe you should consider the same.
_______________________________________

This article courtesy of SovereignMan.com: Notes From The Field, a free newsletter dedicated to individual freedom, internationalization, asset protection and global finance. For a complimentary subscription, visit www.SovereignMan.com.

• He has little confidence in new cap and relief wells
• ‘We know the formation is destroyed, they destroyed it while drilling’
• ‘You cannot seal a blownout formation from the top or bottom’
• ‘Can’t seal a tire with 50 holes in it through the valve stem’
• Recommends drilling 8 total relief wells to relieve pressure

I don’t pretend to possess the expertise necessary to judge Mr. Landau’s claims. For me, his commentary is food for thought, and provides some balance against the rose-tinted views presented by BP and Wall Street analysts.

We should welcome outside perspectives on the Macondo well blowout. After all, official oil flow-rate estimate were still 5,000 bpd when NPR investigations suggested 50-100k bpd. We know now that the BP/govt numbers were likely underestimating flow by 10x. Whether this lowballing was intentional is secondary to the fact that it may have hampered response efforts.

We need input from independent experts. When they’re wrong, it will be refuted. If they’re right, it may assist response and containment efforts.

Here’s the interview with Mr. Landau. It’s worth a watch, plus it has some of the better leak footage I’ve seen so far. My advice: Consume with salt, but consider.

I did some quick research on Mr. Landau to make sure he is at least quasi-legit, and am happy to report he passed a quick PH test. He’s an oil & gas geologist with drilling experience, and has some rather unorthodox theories outside of the Macondo well.

I checked out a few of his peer-reviewed papers. And they’re quite intriguing. Chris is a proponent of Inorganic Oil Theory (inorganic, as opposed to fossil). Some of his peer-reviewed work on that can be found in PDF form here on page 94 and here on page 17. It’s a little chemistry-heavy, but there’s some good meat there.

Inorganic oil is an intriguing prospect. It’s not as if fossil fuels would be the first ubiquitous knowledge to be debunked.

Disclosure: I own BP puts

Jan ’12 BP LEAP puts expire 566 days from today (7/14/2010). That’s a lot of time for something to go wrong.

For example, there will be two hurricane seasons between then and now. Just one poorly-placed hurricane could push millions of gallons of crude further into sensitive areas along the Gulf Coast, multiplying the eventual bill for BP. Warm water conditions mean NOAA is forecasting an abnormally high 13-23 named storms in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.

Potential Profit from BP Puts

Let’s use Jan ’12 $2.50 BP puts as an example. They closed with an ask price of $0.16 today. One hundred contracts at that price would cost $1600 + commission. Each put gives its holder the right to sell 100 shares of BP stock at $2.50 on date of expiration (Jan 21 2012 in this case).

If BP shares are wiped out, the maximum potential profit on 100 $2.50 puts would be $23,138 (assuming a $.02 share price at option expiration). Max loss is the initial cost of the puts, $1600 + commission.

So the max ROI would be 1446%, or around 14x the initial investment. BP filing for bankruptcy is still a highly hypothetical scenario, but I think the risk/reward ratio is good here.

The fact that you can make 14x your money on these options means investors are essentially betting on a 1 in 14 chance of BP going bust by the expiration date, Jan 21 2012. I think there’s more like 1 in 4 chance of bankruptcy, hence the bet.

Buying the $2.50 puts is an aggressive strategy. It’s betting on total disaster. A more conservative strategy use puts closer to the money ($15, $25, etc). The potential upside would be less, but it’s a little bit safer. I own a few different 2012 strikes, including some $2.50s.

BP is an international giant with deep pockets and political clout to match. But its risks are high too. The litigation costs alone will be staggering. Other potential potholes include legislation, reputation, well casing degradation, environmental devastation, and other “ations” we have yet to fully grasp.

On the legislation front,  today the U.S. House Natural Resources Committee passed an amendment which could effectively ban BP from future offshore drilling leases. More on that over at Bloomberg BusinessWeek.

For BP, it all adds up to unknown liabilities, slower growth, and higher drilling costs going forward (no more shortcuts, hopefully). That’s why I think that even a behemoth like BP could buckle under the weight of this mess.

Bankruptcy Scenario

One big question that would emerge from a BP bankruptcy is how claim seniority is handled. Would bondholders and other creditors retain seniority over economic and environmental claims?

I’m guessing common shareholders would be wiped. But a Bear Stearns-esque buyout, with Exxon or Shell reprising the role of J.P. Morgan and U.K. gov’t subbing in for the Yanks is certainly possible. We won’t know until the situation plays out and the full extent of the damage is known.

Further harm to BP investors would be unfortunate. It’s a staple of retirement funds and the demise would have widespread financial impact. However, if it comes down to a lack of funds at some point, it would be an even greater tragedy to punish innocent parties adversely affected by the spill, and shortchange cleanup efforts in favor of investors. An investment comes with risks, always. If someone has to suffer, it’s gotta be stakeholders of the at-fault party.

But that probably won’t happen based on what I’ve read. In the fallout from asbestos/mesothelioma bankruptcies, creditors were placed above victims in most cases (as I understand it). More on that here.

Disclosure: Long BP puts including Jan 2012 $2.50s.
Note: This is NOT financial advice. It is provided for informational purposes only.

Note: Performance %’s are from date of post to 03/05/2010. In many cases, I stopped out earlier on losers or sold winners. I provide additional color when possible.

The Bad

Long Gamestop (GME) @ $24.50: Down 26%. A devious value trap, which still looks cheap to me at 7x trailing P/E. But it gets no respect on Wall St. Everyone’s too busy speculating on BAC and the TBTF mafia, over-leveraged REITs, etc. I am still long GME, but it’ll probably be even cheaper soon.

Short Simon Properties (SPG) @ $51: Down 54%. I’ve traded around this position a few times, with total losses of around 25% on it. I didn’t cover my initial $51 short in the $20′s when I had the chance. Got greedy, figuring they were headed to zero just like GGP. Then the Fed/Gov stepped in with more liquidity than God, and raising capital became much easier, especially for a well-connected REIT like SPG.

Expensive lesson learned, covered that $51 short in the high 40′s. I’ve re-shorted since and been stopped out for losses a few times (and am still stubbornly watching for signs that the inevitable and long-awaited CRE shoe is finally dropping).

Long GRZZX (May 2009): Down 49%. I sold this short-only mutual fund for a 20% loss, as the bull market picked up steam and bailout bonanza really got under way. Theory was that it would be nice to have a diversified basket of shorts for the inevitable double dip.

At that point the market had already bounced 28% from lows. The world was ending, and this little bounce was dead-cat in nature. Boy was I early. Not to mention generally naive about the effects of government-mandated recklessness. A few days after I bought GRZZX in May, I wrote The Deck is Stacked Against Shorts. A month earlier I warned bears that More Bailouts and Inflation Loom. Shoulda been bargain hunting or speculating on garbage stocks.

The Good

Long AAPL @ $81 (Jan 2009): Trades at $218.95: Up 168%: Apple was a lesson in how to trade the next panic. When that crazy growth-monster momo stock you lust after (but don’t want to pay a premium for) crashes, BUY IT. Other examples: VMW, GOOG.

I bought more AAPL at prices ranging from $81-$93, and ended up with quite a large position (for me). If I remember correctly,  Apple was trading at around a 16x P/E with screaming earnings growth and $30/share in cash. There really were some bargains there for a while… Still holding around 1/3, house money. Sold the rest from $160-$194. The stock is a beast, no telling where it’ll stop.

Long Palladium bullion @ $250/ounce: (June ’09) Now trading at $470/ounce – Up 88% (June 2009). I think my thesis was solid, and appears to be playing out. Back then I said, “It may prove to be a good hedge against an inflation-fueled recovery. As the world continues to print money in an attempt to stimulate industry/consumers, demand and inflation could increase dramatically. This may in turn cause commodities like palladium to rise significantly, as governments artificially goose the markets.”

Long PGJ @ $13: (Jan ’09) Trades at $24.21 – Up 82%. My favorite China ETF. It has minimal financial sector exposure (unlike FXI, where the index is 40%+ finance stocks). Still holding most of this.

Long TRAMX @ $5.66: (May ’09) Now trades at $6.99 – Up 23%. Africa and Middle East mutual fund. If traditional emerging markets aren’t risky enough for you, you can buy this fund and get exposure to these politically volatile but fast-growing markets. Still holding.

Long EKWAX @ $45: (Jan 2009) Now trades at $73.29 – Up 58%: I love this gold fund. These guys know how to pick winners in the mining space. It’s up 602% over the last 10 years. I agree with George Soros here. Gold may eventually be a bubble, but it’s one that I want in on. And it has not come close to peaking yet, with countries around the world engaged in a currency race to the bottom. Still own it.

Morals of the Story, Lessons Learned

Overall I’m happy with the picks I’ve posted here. They either crushed it or bombed, not much in the middle.

I didn’t have enough long equity exposure in ’09, but the ones I did have made up for it. I also own gold and silver, which have done well.

One of the biggest lessons for me was the difficulty of shorting in an environment like this. The Fed has been pumping liquidity into the system like mad, and outcomes depend more on the actions of a few questionably-motivated creatures (who have abysmal track records) than actual fundamentals. Nothing to be done about that though, from an investing perspective anyway.

In hindsight, it was clearly better to bargain-hunt and speculate than short in ’09. My best gains of the year were pure speculation or value plays. I didn’t publish two of the big ones here, but I did post them on my old Motley Fool CAPS blog. One was CROX at $1.20 (trades at $7.49 today, 524% gain).  The other was Men’s Wearhouse @ $11.20 (trades at $25.17 today).

Reading hedge fund veterans like Bill Fleckenstein was quite helpful. I’ve been subscribing to his service for a while, and he closed his short-only fund near the market bottom, after a hugely profitable year. His short positions have been burnt by Fed Chairmen past, so he knew what effect all that Fed liquidity would have. He told readers he’d rather be in precious metals and cheap stocks than short.

I learned a lot about government intervention in general, and its impact on markets. Next time it looks like the world is ending, everyone should buy horrible pig stocks that will  benefit from the Feds’ clumsy/corrupt attempts to “stabilize the markets”, AKA bail out politically-connected mega-firms.

There’s a lot of buzz hitting the contrarian financial news circles around the web regarding recent market weakness and the possibility for the end of the rally which began in March of 2009.

Many contrarian investors have been waiting for the crash that is inevitably to follow the largest US market rally in modern history, and this may be it. We caution our readers, however, that over the last year there have been various false signals, and rather than seeing a crash in the Summer of 2009 or Fall of 2009, stock markets continued to push up, despite abysmal economic fundamentals.

Is it the real thing this time?

Bert Dohmen, publisher of the Wellington Letter, says “This is the time for the bears to make money. Sell short any rally attempts.”

Dohmen, who suggested in December 2009 that early January would see a continued rise in stocks, anticipated a down-turn in late January. In his most recent letter, dispatched to subscribers January 21, 2010, Dohmen says that we can forget about the theory that “hyperinflation is right around the corner,” and that deflation and debt implosion is the major problem:

“Market analysts expect 2010 to see a rise in corporate earnings and sales. They are probably correct. But that will be met by further market weakness. You see, that’s what the stock rise of the prior 10 months was all about. Stocks are already priced for the best news that could possibly develop this year. When all the fund managers are positioned for this “good news,” there is no further money to go in. And that’s when the selling gets serious.

The recent news out of China is just what we have been warning about: tighter lending and monetary policies! Economic growth in the last quarter was a blistering 10.7% (officially), which obviously creates worries about inflation. Tighter money dampens speculative fever. And all the sins of the speculative bubble of 2009 will surface.

As a result, the US dollar is now in demand and is soaring. That kills the most important reasons for buying commodities. The dollar rally will be a lot stronger than even the few dollar bulls imagine. There will be a massive rush to close out short positions.”

In our earlier post this morning, Chinese Fed Shuts Down Lending, Capital Flees to Dollar, we suggested that the pullback in Chinese bank lending and stimulus, may force capital speculating in Asian stocks back to safety in the US Dollar. Dohmen seems to agree with this assessment.

J Derek Blain, of Investopedia, also thinks the stock markets may be turning. His view is that not only will the dollar rebound, but we will see equities prices, commodities, and precious metals turn to the down-side in the near term, as more capital flows into the US Dollar. Blain is quite bearish on short-term precious metals prices, so if you haven’t stocked up on gold and silver, perhaps you’ll have yet another opportunity in the near future because Blain says The Big One Could Finally Be Here:

“But here’s the interesting thing – finally, after 5 weeks of watching gold top and begin its bear market decline, and the major stock indexes make new highs, we might have just witnessed the turning point in all “risk assets”.

And that is really one of the keys, and one thing we have been saying for several months now.   Whenever the precious metals are treated as risk assets for the purposes of capital gains, they are not in a bull market but in a false rally.  The psychology that drives this sort of rally is hope-based, completely mood-driven, and ultimately comes unwound like the thread in a poorly knit sweater.

What we are looking for, here at Investophoria, is despair.  Until we see such a thing in the precious metals we cannot recommend buying them.  If we did without it, we would be advising you to get in line and be “the sucker” who is willing to pay a higher price.”

—

“The next leg down in both gold and silver should be very fast and will take many more by surprise who have run to them seeking to make back the losses they sustained in stocks in the last bear-market leg.”

If the global stock markets start to pull back, gold and silver are going with them. While gold is a safe haven asset in times of distress, it is important to note that the broader picture for the time being is that gold has not decoupled from the stock market in general and remains closely tied to the inverse movement of the US Dollar, as was evidenced by gold’s reaction to the Dubai stock market collapse in November 2009.

For traders (not investors) looking to make short term profits, precious metals are just as dangerous as the stock market right now. If you are a long-term precious metals investor, turn off the news and stop watching daily price movement in precious metals, you should be fine when gold does finally decouple from other assets and becomes a safety asset, not because of inflationary fears, but because instability in the public (government) sector.

When this will happen is anybody’s guess, but there should be a floor for gold, because as the price collapses, it will become attractive for large buyers, especially central banks in China, India and Russia. So, there really is no need to run out and sell all your gold bullion to Cash4Gold at 60% less than it is worth. The longer trend for gold is still entact.

The dollar seems to be the beneficiary of recent market mini-panics, as evidenced by corrections in US markets last year, Dubai and now the shift in capital out of Chinese assets.

How can this be, you ask? Isn’t the dollar supposed to be on an unstoppable collapse to a value of exactly zero? Well, yes, it is on a collapse trajectory, but it is important to note that this will not happen in one fell swoop. There are gyrations in the markets, and since the US Dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, regardless of talk from Russia and China, this is where the money will go when everything else is collapsing. We strongly believe that this trend will eventually end and the ultimate safety asset class will become precious metals, but in a paper world, when the SHTF, capital flees to the safest paper around, which ironically, is the US Dollar.

Considering that the US Treasury needs to fund roughly $1.5 Trillion in new debt via Treasury sales in 2010, a global stock market collapse could be the US government’s saving grace, as Graham Summers recently pointed out:

“So how do you create interest? [In US Treasuries]

Simple, let the stock market collapse. The “flight to safety” that would follow would push billions if not hundreds of billions of dollars into Treasuries, soaking up the debt issuance and roll-over with little difficulty.”

It sounds mad scientist sinister, but quite realistic when you give it the consideration it deserves. The Fed, Treasury, Congress and the administrations have continually taken ridiculous, if not criminal, actions over the last several years. What’s to stop them now? It’s really a quite simple plan – pull back on stimulus in the US and China, have the big investment banks rip their profits out of equities and shift into US Treasuries, and leave panicked investors who thought the economic recovery was sustainable scrambling for the exits.

Theoretically, this all sounds quite feasible, but how are we looking from a technical perspective? Tyler Durden of Zero Hedge weighs in on the argument for the dollar:

“The DXY is about to break the 78.449 high last achieved on December 22: at 78.320 we are very close. Greece is helping. When that resistance is breached, look for Europe to start panicking and also all those who still have the dollar short trade on to start rushing through the exits.”

Though it may still be too early to tell, the technical signals suggest that the ingredients for a crash seem to be in place and conditions for a serious down-turn are now more likely than anytime in the last ten months.

Thanks to Mac Slavo of SHTFplan.com for the submission.

chart via ZH

Count on the Obama administration to take a fresh, critical look — as the largest single recipient of Student loans in this country is a for-profit institution whose insiders have sold hundreds of millions of dollars of stock while collecting over 75% of their revenue from government guaranteed loan funds, while delivering an education of questionable value amid a history of unsavory business practices.

Well, after-hours today the WSJ reports that the SEC is investigating some of Apollo’s revenue-recognition practices. The result? APOL down 17% after hours.

Apollo Group Inc. said the Securities and Exchange Commission has launched an informal inquiry into its revenue-recognition practices.

Apollo, whose University of Phoenix is the country’s largest private college and has benefited from the economic downturn, reported fiscal fourth-quarter results Tuesday that beat Wall Street estimates. But news of the probe, its second this year, sent its shares tumbling in late trading.

Finance Chief Brian Swartz said in a conference call with investors Tuesday that the company believes “that our revenue recognition policies are appropriate and in accordance with GAAP.” He added that it didn’t have “any further insight” into the probe.

For-profit colleges have come under fire numerous times for their methods of recognizing revenue, most of which is derived from government loans. Apollo received a letter from the SEC’s Division of Corporate Finance related to its revenue recognition in February and said in its conference call that, “to our knowledge,” it answered all of that division’s questions. The current probe comes from the SEC’s Division of Enforcement.

Apollo said that it took an $80.5 million charge in its fourth fiscal quarter to cover the costs of a possible settlement of a whistleblower’s suit pending in U.S. District Court in Sacramento, Calif. The suit alleged that Apollo owed the government refunds on billions in financial aid funds because it allegedly paid recruiter incentives based on the number of students they enroll. Federal education law bars such incentive payments.

Disclosure: Short APOL