- Fed will continue to print, no exit strategy
- Effectiveness of QE diminishing, but Fed won’t/can’t stop monetizing debt
- China is at risk from real estate bubble, but still growing, relatively strong
- Global economy isn’t growing much
- Remains positive on gold (since ’99)
- Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand stock valuations “in the sky” at 20-25x
Facebook, a company with skyrocketing costs and a ~126 P/E, has an interesting few months ahead of it…
FACEBOOK LOCK-UP RELEASES:
- August 15th, 2012 (next Thursday): 268 million shares, 10% of shares outstanding.
- October 14th: 249 million shares, 9% of shares outstanding.
- November 13th: 1.332 billion shares, 49% of shares outstanding.
- December 13th: 124 million shares, 5% of shares outstanding.
- May 17th, 2013: 47 million shares, 2% of shares outstanding.
Over the next 4 months, in other words, 2 billion Facebook shares will become eligible for sale—about 70% of Facebook’s total shares outstanding.
From Business Insider. Will insiders hold strong? Hrmmmmmm.
Disclosure: No position currently. Edit – Short a little after-hours. Not financial advice, do your own research or consult a professional, etc etc.
In this interview via Reuters, Mr. Rogers talks about his desire to short treasuries (eventually), which he says will be “one of the great shorts of our time”. Also discusses why he’s currently long the dollar, and why the world needs a “controlled disaster” before something much more volatile inevitably occurs.
h/t Silver Doctors
Back in April I entered a contest at ShortScreen.com. Ended up winning an iPad2!
So thanks to Dave Pinsen and the guys over there. My blogging productivity is at near-year lows, thanks to the new precious. And my 24 mo kid monopolizes it if I take it out around him. Two, and he plays Angry Birds. By himself. I’m glad I won this thing, because I probably wouldn’t have swallowed my anti-Apple pride and bought one.
The goal of the contest was to make a compelling short case, to be voted upon by their premium members. My pick, DEER, a Chinese consumer firm with (alleged) book issues fell from around $9 to $8 during the month ($6.69 today.)
They have some nice-looking tools for screening out short opportunities, and an App called Portfolio Armor that helps you find the cheapest puts to hedge long positions. Check it out.