But how is this legal plunder to be identified? Quite simply. See if the law takes from some persons what belongs to them, and gives it to other persons to whom it does not belong. See if the law benefits one citizen at the expense of another by doing what the citizen himself cannot do without committing a crime.

Then abolish this law without delay, for it is not only an evil itself, but also it is a fertile source for further evils because it invites reprisals. If such a law — which may be an isolated case — is not abolished immediately, it will spread, multiply, and develop into a system.

The person who profits from this law will complain bitterly, defending his acquired rights. He will claim that the state is obligated to protect and encourage his particular industry; that this procedure enriches the state because the protected industry is thus able to spend more and to pay higher wages to the poor workingmen.

Do not listen to this sophistry by vested interests. The acceptance of these arguments will build legal plunder into a whole system. In fact, this has already occurred. The present-day delusion is an attempt to enrich everyone at the expense of everyone else; to make plunder universal under the pretense of organizing it.

Connecting the dots from 1850, when Bastiat wrote this, to today, hardly seems necessary. 162 years later, and Bastiat’s The Law is fresh as a daisy.

When measured on a per capita basis, cumulative GDP growth since the start of the recession in ’08 is extremely disappointing. Especially when you consider all the measures which were supposedly designed to boost growth.

QE1, QE2, TARP, ZIRP, stimulus (think Solyndra & Fisker, not roads & bridges). Failure & wealth transfer have resulted.

Perhaps the most economically impactful “stimulus” enacted so far is the payroll tax cut. Social Security payroll tax deductions were temporarily reduced from 6.2% to 4.2% in 2011. Although there will be bickering, for now it seems like the tax cut will be extended indefinitely (ignore the unsustainable long-term nature of it all, if you can).

Some economists venture to guess that the payroll tax cut (2% less taxes on all wages/salaries below a certain threshold) will contribute 1-1.5% to annual GDP as long as it remains in place.

So picture the chart to the left, without a big chunk of the recent upturn. Now picture it if properly adjusted for inflation. It’s not a pretty picture.

Conclusion: any economist that says we’re not currently in a recession/depression is trying to sell you something.

Chart via WSJ’s Jason Lahart.

When nothing seems to help, I go and look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock, perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred and first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not that blow that did it, but all that had gone before.

Jacob Riis

Gold had another up day with stocks, as it was ‘risk on’ with renewed hopes for fresh infusions of liquidity as we saw from the Bank of England.

I tended to view this action as more ‘technical’ than fundamental.

I don’t like the headline correlation between stocks and the metals like gold and silver which would normally function as a safe haven in a time of increased risk.

Notice the new lines of broad support and resistance levels on the gold chart. We have not yet broken to the upside, so caution is advised.

Used Google’s Public Data Explorer for this. Very neat tool, could get lost in it for a while.

Charts courtesy of John Williams at Shadowstats.

The first chart shows US Housing Starts since the year 2000.

The second chart shows US Housing Starts since 1945.

Guest post by Jesse of Jesse’s Cafe.

Please bear in mind that the DX dollar index will become increasingly irrelevant because of its outdated structure, heavily weighted to the euro yen and the pound, to the exclusion of the emerging currencies and the precious metals.

The shorter term chart has been rallying largely on euro weakness. We might see another eurodollar short squeeze if things continue to deteriorate in the European banking system.

A stronger dollar is something that the wealthy and the financial sector may enjoy, to the detriment of the rest of the country and any hopes of economic recovery.   However the realities of things make a stronger dollar problematic.

So the next best thing is to slowly devalue the dollar by printing money and selectively distributing it, with tax benefits, to the most powerful and fortunate members of society.

In a ‘free market’ for currencies the dollar would have been much lower by now because of the persistent trade deficit, and the enormous dollar balances held by some of her trading partners.

The financial engineers favor a slow decline so as not to disclocate any of the major banking concerns. The currency discussions between China and the US are political theater for their respective peoples and the currency tourists, i.e. the small speculators who provide a snack for the wolves.

For more, visit Jesse’s Cafe.

My kind of infographic, via Reddit.

From Tyler at ZH, quoting FOMC:

The only section that matters: “Some participants noted that if economic growth remained too slow to make satisfactory progress toward reducing the unemployment rate and if inflation returned to relatively low levels after the effects of recent transitory shocks dissipated, it would be appropriate to provide additional monetary policy accommodation…”

Precious metals react. Kitco News via Forbes:

Gold futures, already fortified by Europe’s continuing debt woes, got an extra shot in the arm Tuesday afternoon when minutes of the most recent meeting of Federal Reserve policy-makers showed at least some members are willing to consider further stimulus.

Silver also got a bump from today’s somehow-surprising news that QE3, or some other form of money printing, is still a very real possibility (inevitable, some say). Remember that the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting is coming up next month, and Bill Gross says it is likely QE3 will be officially endorsed then.

Live 1d silver chart via Kitco.com:

By Jesse of Jesse’s Cafe Americain

“It appears that there is an undeliverable force heading towards an unmanageable object.”

At some point the shysters will lose control of the monetary papier-mâché which they have created. And the subsequent reaction could be epic, with the almost inevitable force of nature, like a tsunami rolling in.

Only a few people understand this. So it could be quite the surprise to many.

In the meantime the bankers and politicians are scrambling for the goodies pouring out of the financial piñata which they cracked open in the financial crisis.

The banks have plenty of gold to lease into the bullion banks, and then on into the markets and as collateral for leveraged paper obligations. But they are running out of silver, which causes me to believe that the silver cartel will break first, and will lead the way higher, as it has been doing.  A handful of Too Big To Fail Banks seem to be short more silver than can possibly be delivered without incurring terrific losses, even by today’s distorted standards.  From the looks of it, it appears that there is an undeliverable force heading towards an unmanageable object. Further complicating matters is the possibility of a magnitude 9.6 sovereign debt earthquake in the markets.

Unless there is some forced settlement, some draconian government intervention, silver appears to be a leading candidate for the manipulated market most likely to go super nova.

If the equity market does not fall apart over Greece et al., I would imagine that the trading desks will try to stand on the metals until a little closer to quarter end, then its elevator going up. But watch out for a Greek related problem. I am not sure how the markets might react to this if it really is another Lehman like event. So as you might expect I am running a paired trade, and net short into the close.

The dollar chart is a big problematic. I can make a scenario for a break either higher or lower from the chart. I think we will know the move when it comes, but predicting it in advance is a dicey thing, except for the broken clocks.

If the sovereign default situation goes badly there *could* be a liquidation selloff that would impact silver, and to some extent gold. This is why I am holding paired trades that are short stocks and long bullion. I further adjusted the risk downward today, and lengthened the shorts.

Re-published with author permission.