The Big Government Economy

Government jobs vs. Manufacturing Jobs

Looks like the goods-govt job ratio peaked around 3:1 in the 30′s-40′s. Now there are far more government jobs than goods-producing ones. Pretty damn shocking.

It should be obvious to anyone with a pulse that an economy based on government jobs, deficit spending, zombie banks, moral hazard, and cheap imports is not sustainable.

I had a friend who worked at the Dept of Labor. The agency’s ironic name was a running joke. Apparently people spent most of their time surfing the net, even running Ebay businesses out of their cubes. That’s what happens in low-accountability work environments. And it’s why government spending is always less efficient than the private sector.

These low or zero-accountability jobs are taking over our economy, and it’s not just government. We’re removing accountability and responsibility from all sorts of industries — especially banks, autos, and real estate.

But this support really only goes to the politically connected. Businesses who don’t donate generously to their local reps can drop dead. Welcome to the Kleptocracy.

I’m taking advantage of this “recovery” to prepare for the inevitable funding crisis ahead.

Chart via Tim Iacono, who runs a great blog.

Slate Interviews Tim Geithner

Link. I’m going to post some of the more interesting excerpts, plus my translation/commentary:

GROSS: So you don’t think the bailouts were too friendly to Wall Street?

GEITHNER: The idea that the strategy was unfair and has principally benefited a small number of institutions in New York is a mischaracterization of the design and result of the strategy. I thought people would have understood this after the failure of Lehman Bros. But when you do too little and you leave the system with real fear that everything is going to fall apart, like any financial crisis, it hurts the poorest most. A just and fair strategy, even if it is politically hardest to explain and justify, is to use well-designed but massive force to stabilize the system.

Translation: Ignore the fact that bailouts resulted in record bonuses in 2009. Think about all those poor people who would be without more credit (debt) had we not acted. Ignore the fact that they still don’t have credit, extending more debt to people is not sustainable, and unemployment is still on the rise.

A bloated financial sector subsidized by government is the lifeblood of our economy. I have this on good authority. My mentor, Bob R. (former Goldman CEO, slayer of Glass-Steagall), Lloyd, and Jamie all agree.

GROSS: The biggest downside surprise?

GEITHNER: The [high] level of unemployment relĀ­ative to what was happening in the economy as a whole. I’m not an economist, but almost all forecasters missed that. And that’s hugely consequential, because it’s the prism through which most people view basic economic health.

Translation: What’s the problem? The market is up. That means the economy is OK. So why is unemployment still an issue? We injected trillions of dollars here. Our projections show sunshine and rainbows into 2010 and beyond.

GROSS: There’s a perception that you regard your portfolio narrowly, as primarily focused on the health of Wall Street, with Main Street a distant second.

GEITHNER: My first and essential responsibility was to fix and reform the financial system. That was necessarily going to be the principal part of what people saw. About half my time from the beginning has been spent on the design of the broader economic strategy. The idea that we did not do much for the broader challenges facing the country is completely unjustified. The Recovery Act itself was not just a sweeping, essential force for growth but included a bunch of targeted investments in education, energy, environment, health care that will have huge long-term benefits.

Translation: Banks come first. Speculation and mass-bonuses with government backing is crucial to America’s economy. But hey, we’re looking out for the lil’ guy too. After we took care of the really important stuff, we also pledged $787b for questionable pork-barrel projects. Those quilt-museums and $3m turtle highways will create some jobs.

GROSS: What portions of the financial meltdown will the government still be dealing with a year from now?

GEITHNER: This was the worst thing that’s happened in 70 years, and it’s going to have a tail. Unwinding our stakes in autos, in AIG, and in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is going to have a somewhat longer fuse. The transition away from this massive government intervention in the housing market is going to take some time. A year from now, the FDIC will still have a large stock of assets from institutions they’ve taken over.

Translation: Kiss those giveaways investments in Freddie, Fannie, and automakers goodbye. The FDIC is also taking on loads of overvalued crap from failed banks, so watch out for that too.

GROSS: What keeps you up at night? What do you worry about?

GEITHNER: Apart from whether my kids are going to be happy in life? What concerns me is whether we will be able to do well enough on the things that are most important. The hardest thing in governing is to make politically achievable the policies that are economically good, just, and sensible for the country. That’s a challenge, partly because of the damage done to the confidence in government and policy in the last two decades, partly because of the populism, and partly because we have to build broad consensus on the Hill in order to do anything meaningful. What countries need in crises the president delivered. He said, this is the plan, and he got it done. But on a range of things that really matter to the future, it requires a coalition to really make legislation happen.

So Tim, the reason it’s hard to make good economic decisions is due to populism? The nerve of those Main Street jackals, asking to be the primary concern of their government. It’s more clear than ever that Tim’s priority is Wall Street. And he doesn’t see anything wrong with that.

Maybe he should read up on Treasury’s mission statement. I don’t see anything in there about propping up a corrupt zombie-banking system.

Sprott: Is it all just a big ponzi scheme?

Fascinating report from Sprott Asset Management.

h/t ZH.

Digging Out

Pics from my deck in Columbia, MD, taken last night (Saturday 12/19/09). We ended up with around 23 inches, but had to start shoveling at some point.

Patio table:

Mike Rowe on Jobs

Fascinating talk at TED (Dec 2008).

One of the comments over at Ted.com included this quote, which I like:

The society which scorns excellence in plumbing because plumbing is a humble activity and tolerates shoddiness in philosophy because it is an exalted activity will have neither good plumbing nor good philosophy. Neither its pipes nor its theories will hold water

Substitute banking/economics for philosophy, and I like it even better.

FDIC Ramps Up Hiring, 2010 May Be Busy

From FDIC.gov:

The Board of Directors of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) today approved a $4.0 billion Corporate Operating Budget for 2010. The Board also revised the current 2009 budget to $2.6 billion.

‘The 2010 budget is a prudent and measured response to current conditions in the banking industry,’ said FDIC Chairman Sheila Bair. ‘It will ensure that we are prepared to handle an even-larger number of bank failures next year, if that becomes necessary, and to provide regulatory oversight for an even larger number of troubled institutions.’

The 2010 operating budget will increase more than $1.4 billion (55%) from 2009, primarily due to the cyclical nature of bank failures. The receivership funding component of the 2010 budget, the vast majority of which is funded by receiverships, will be $2.5 billion, up from $1.3 billion in 2009. This includes funding for the continuing work associated with bank failures that have occurred over the past two years. The budget also contains contingency funding for the possible continuation of an elevated number of bank failures in 2010. The 2010 budget increase also is partially attributable to increased supervisory activity related to the rising number of troubled banks which the FDIC oversees.

In conjunction with its approval of the 2010 operating budget, the Board also approved an authorized 2010 staffing level of 8,653 employees, up from 7,010 in 2009. Almost all the additional staff will be hired on a temporary basis. They will be hired primarily to assist with bank closings; to perform follow-on work related to the management and sale of failed bank assets; and to conduct bank examinations and perform other bank supervisory activities.

Lots of bank failures next year could cripple the FDIC’s wounded reserve fund. As the chart below shows (via Rolfe Winkler), their reserves aren’t pretty. Don’t worry about bank runs, though. The real concern is them having to borrow money from Treasury, and the consequences that would have. They’d have to drop that whole “fully funded by our banks” line, for one…

fdic-chart

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