Who is Jim Rogers?
Love this video snapshot of Jim Rogers. Starts with a quick biography, then rolls to a best-of recent commentary.
Interviewer: It’s 1973, you’re 30 years old and you start co-managing Quantum fund with George Soros. Over the next 10 years it goes up 4,200%. You both become legends on Wall St. So why do you think you managed to get it so right, so often?
Towards the end he mentions the bubble in Treasuries. I’ve been thinking about this a lot lately. Anyone know if he’s actually short t-bonds yet?
I owned TBT (ultrashort 20-yr T-bond fund) briefly last year. Haven’t decided on whether it’s time to get back in yet. I strongly suspect the Fed will announce QE 2.0 this Spring, after their current programs expire and sh*t hits the fan (mortgage rates and foreclosures spike). But who knows? With our newly populist-pandering President, it should make for an interesting year, to say the least.
2 Comments
Both Faber and Rogers have discussed bonds as a horrible investment, but I don’t think either one of them are shorting bonds yet, or they have not made it public as far as I know.
I, too, like TBT and was watching it closely last year. If those 20yr / 30yr rates go up like they did back in the 1980′s TBT is going through the roof.
Check out this chart on the 30 year going back to 1977: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^TYX#symbol=^TYX;range=my
In 1980 it bounced to around 15%. I wonder what people were thinking back then… Panic? or were they thinking everything would be cool?
In any case, looking at 4.5% now, it is hard to imagine it going that high again — but I suppose it can happen, and given the longer term impact of the trillions of dollars in debt we’re taking on, heck, might it go even higher?!
TBT doesn’t look like it gets eaten up like the other leveraged ETFs, but I wouldn’t mind a no leverage inverse for the 20yr or 30 yr…
Perhaps if we experience another market crash globally, more funds will flow into bonds/notes/bills, forcing these rates down even lower. If I see TBT down in that $35 range like we saw around the time of the crash of ’08, I may have no choice but to take a shot at it. I won’t go all in, of course, but a little could go a long way. I hate to hold a leveraged ETF for longer than a couple weeks, but heck, I’ll do it if the timing seems right… I might even be willing to negotiate with myself at around $42 and buy a little.
Hypothetically, let’s say you moved in to TBT at $40, and it took a pounding as interest rates went down much more than expected…. could TBT act as a decent multi-month / multi-year hold? Of course, you could set stops on it and all, but I’m curious what others think about the long-term hold possibilities.
[...] and trader”. This, from the guy who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, which saw returns of 4200% over the first 10 [...]