The San Fran Fed just released some interesting data on the short and long-term inflation outlooks. Remember that this analysis is based on The Fed’s POV (aka guys who don’t think pumping trillions into the system is inflationary).

Concerns about disinflation are increasing the forecast dispersion over the next year or so, while over the long run the rise in disagreement reflects fears that inflation will take off. This horizon-dependent forecast disagreement complicates the Fed’s communication strategy, since alleviating short-run disinflation concerns may very well feed inflation fears in the longer run, and vice versa.

First the “consensus” short-term outlook:

short-term-inflation

Now the “consensus” long-term inflation outlook:

long-term-inflation-outlook