Wall Street is using the May durable goods report as an excuse to rally. A tiny month-over-month increase of 1.8% from April pushed the S&P up as much as 1.6% before drifting lower today.

U.S. agencies like Labor and Commerce arguably have an interest in presenting the best scenario possible. So it’s understandable that they focus on month-over-month data in their press releases. The media follows suit (or is lazy), and highlights only the data they’re hand-fed.

Try to find a mainstream-media piece that mentions the YoY change in durable goods. Every single one I saw only mentioned the slight uptick in month-over-month numbers. So what about year-over-year data? It is available, you just have to dig deep into Commerce’s site to find it.

Once you see the year-over-year data, it’s obvious why they aren’t highlighting it:

May 2008 Shipments – 215,193
May 2009 Shipments – 169,855
Year over year decrease: 19%

May 2008 Orders – 213,150
May 2009 Orders -160,867
Year over year drop: 26.8%

Source – Commerce Dept Report (PDF)

Doesn’t exactly scream “recovery” to me. A temporary slowing in the crash, caused by drastic cash injections, seems the more likely culprit than anything sustainable.

The May report of the Equipment Leasing and Finance Corporation is another fly in the green shoot crowd’s ointment:

The Equipment Leasing and Finance Association’s monthly leasing and finance index fell by 41% compared to May 2008. The group blames tough credit conditions and a tightening of underwriting standards. [from the wsj]

Disclosure: No position in any stock or company mentioned