Comments on: Flaws in the Deflation Case http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 19:38:35 +0000 hourly 1 By: shakewell http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047/comment-page-1#comment-1894 shakewell Tue, 13 Jul 2010 03:37:39 +0000 http://www.bearishnews.com/?p=1047#comment-1894 from about 2001 to 2006 we had hyperinflation in hard assets and equities. we are now in and have been in deflation and that will probably continue for many more years. The evaporation of dollars is happening much faster than the creation of dollars and smart feds know that they will be pushing on a string if they continue to monetize and will probably prolong deflation. its absurd to think that if the fed sent us all 50k 500k ect that would cause inflation all that would do would create a massive flight out of the dollar into gold other commodities and china and japan would refuse to buy t-bills, notes ,if they continued to do so they would want 50% + on the __lending which would be a huge smack down on inflation. just as money is created out of thin air it can evaporate and return to thin air. its called debt default.fannie and freddie are trillions poised to default and proabaly will where are the newer bigger fools to borrow i.e replace this money with. from about 2001 to 2006 we had hyperinflation in hard assets and equities.
we are now in and have been in deflation and that will probably continue for many more years. The evaporation of dollars is happening much faster than the creation of dollars and smart feds know that they will be pushing on a string if they continue to monetize and will probably prolong deflation. its absurd to think that if the fed sent us all 50k 500k ect that would cause inflation all that would do would create a massive flight out of the dollar into gold other commodities and china and japan would refuse to buy t-bills, notes ,if they continued to do so they would want 50% + on the __lending which would be a huge smack down on inflation. just as money is created out of thin air it can evaporate and return to thin air. its called debt default.fannie and freddie are trillions poised to default and proabaly will where are the newer bigger fools to borrow i.e replace this money with.

]]> By: gh http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047/comment-page-1#comment-1735 gh Tue, 13 Apr 2010 18:23:06 +0000 http://www.bearishnews.com/?p=1047#comment-1735 Inflation is Baaaack! http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Annual_Inflation/annual_inflation_chart.htm Inflation is Baaaack!

http://inflationdata.com/inflation/images/charts/Annual_Inflation/annual_inflation_chart.htm

]]> By: TR http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047/comment-page-1#comment-1621 TR Mon, 08 Mar 2010 10:08:22 +0000 http://www.bearishnews.com/?p=1047#comment-1621 <i>"We're not going to monetize the debt," Mr. Bernanke declared flatly</i> - 25 FEB 2010 Deflation it is. “We’re not going to monetize the debt,” Mr. Bernanke declared flatly – 25 FEB 2010

Deflation it is.

]]> By: Peter Boockvar Debunks Deflationistas http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047/comment-page-1#comment-1579 Peter Boockvar Debunks Deflationistas Thu, 25 Feb 2010 18:39:53 +0000 http://www.bearishnews.com/?p=1047#comment-1579 [...] Good Tech Ticker clip featuring Peter Boockvar explaining why any deflation/disinflation will inevitably lead to more easing and ultimately inflation. I discussed this at length last year in Flaws in the Deflation Case. [...] [...] Good Tech Ticker clip featuring Peter Boockvar explaining why any deflation/disinflation will inevitably lead to more easing and ultimately inflation. I discussed this at length last year in Flaws in the Deflation Case. [...]

]]> By: More Details on Bernanke’s Meddling http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047/comment-page-1#comment-1223 More Details on Bernanke’s Meddling Tue, 20 Oct 2009 16:06:00 +0000 http://www.bearishnews.com/?p=1047#comment-1223 [...] coming, that the economy was looking good (and why not, when they’re pumping trillions?). See Flaws in the Deflation Case for more on the general concept, though it is a little [...] [...] coming, that the economy was looking good (and why not, when they’re pumping trillions?). See Flaws in the Deflation Case for more on the general concept, though it is a little [...]

]]> By: David Rosenberg on Inflation, Gold, and Market Fundamentals http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047/comment-page-1#comment-911 David Rosenberg on Inflation, Gold, and Market Fundamentals Fri, 18 Sep 2009 03:44:22 +0000 http://www.bearishnews.com/?p=1047#comment-911 [...] and plenty of book-cooking via changes to accounting rules and inflation data. See Flaws in the Deflation Case for [...] [...] and plenty of book-cooking via changes to accounting rules and inflation data. See Flaws in the Deflation Case for [...]

]]> By: US and Japan Bear Markets Compared: 1929, 1989, 2000 & 2007 http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047/comment-page-1#comment-592 US and Japan Bear Markets Compared: 1929, 1989, 2000 & 2007 Tue, 11 Aug 2009 05:21:07 +0000 http://www.bearishnews.com/?p=1047#comment-592 [...] following in Japan’s footsteps. I don’t agree with the sustained-deflation argument, as stated here. But a lot of smart people do think our “eternal life-support for zombie-banks” [...] [...] following in Japan’s footsteps. I don’t agree with the sustained-deflation argument, as stated here. But a lot of smart people do think our “eternal life-support for zombie-banks” [...]

]]> By: Adam Sharp http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047/comment-page-1#comment-515 Adam Sharp Thu, 23 Jul 2009 18:28:20 +0000 http://www.bearishnews.com/?p=1047#comment-515 Scott - that's the right question. Not sure of the answer, though. Inflation seems inevitable. I like metals, but mostly just cause I hate the market. Stocks are very expensive right now, P/E of around 134 on the S&P 500. That doesn't mean they won't go up, because of manipulation and "creative" accounting. If you have the motivation, building some sort of business if probably the best investment. Even if it's just in your spare-time. Scott – that’s the right question. Not sure of the answer, though. Inflation seems inevitable. I like metals, but mostly just cause I hate the market. Stocks are very expensive right now, P/E of around 134 on the S&P 500. That doesn’t mean they won’t go up, because of manipulation and “creative” accounting.

If you have the motivation, building some sort of business if probably the best investment. Even if it’s just in your spare-time.

]]> By: Scott Clous http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047/comment-page-1#comment-511 Scott Clous Wed, 22 Jul 2009 17:10:45 +0000 http://www.bearishnews.com/?p=1047#comment-511 How to invest then? If things are going to get worse, maybe now, maybe later... If holding on to cash were any kind of answer, we'd consider it, but it's not there are some places that will pay to hold through the next few years --- useful commodities, oil, natural gas, only because people will continue to drive to work, heat their houses. I'm looking at stocks for such a long term, they still appear attractive, if as you so wisely point out, we don't have further game changing manipulations by government. We will, so what are the choices left on the table? At a dinner party last Christmas folks told me how they had pulled their retirement funds out at the top of the summer. They were going to sit it out. I don't know if they ever got back in. Meanwhile, in some areas, again international relative to US markets, some funds and ETFs have returned 30-40% YTD. But if we learned nothing else in 2008, no equity market is an island. Trying to find a good counter weight, we have the gold bugs, but with only limited usage -- and I think that ship has sailed. Owning real estate, cumbersome, but perhaps fun and the only hedge to the kind of inflation that has to come, 1970's, at the very least, in light of all the games coming from our elected teams in DC. Loved the post, keep it up. How to invest then?

If things are going to get worse, maybe now, maybe later…

If holding on to cash were any kind of answer, we’d consider it, but it’s not there are some places that will pay to hold through the next few years — useful commodities, oil, natural gas, only because people will continue to drive to work, heat their houses.

I’m looking at stocks for such a long term, they still appear attractive, if as you so wisely point out, we don’t have further game changing manipulations by government.

We will, so what are the choices left on the table? At a dinner party last Christmas folks told me how they had pulled their retirement funds out at the top of the summer. They were going to sit it out. I don’t know if they ever got back in. Meanwhile, in some areas, again international relative to US markets, some funds and ETFs have returned 30-40% YTD.

But if we learned nothing else in 2008, no equity market is an island. Trying to find a good counter weight, we have the gold bugs, but with only limited usage — and I think that ship has sailed.

Owning real estate, cumbersome, but perhaps fun and the only hedge to the kind of inflation that has to come, 1970′s, at the very least, in light of all the games coming from our elected teams in DC.

Loved the post, keep it up.

]]> By: misanthropope http://www.bearishnews.com/post/1047/comment-page-1#comment-451 misanthropope Fri, 10 Jul 2009 07:40:06 +0000 http://www.bearishnews.com/?p=1047#comment-451 there's an important distinction between the debt laden companies that will get boosted and the ones that will get crushed- which is most of them, IMO. in one word, "refi". the trend in the past 20 years has been to view short term obligations is purely _better_ (for the debtor) than longer term ones. hey, the difference in interest rate must be free money with no tradeoff, right? you gotta go B-School to get THIS kind of stupid. plenty of companies have blown up (REITs, BDCs, and oh yeah, the investment banking industry) because although they could easily service interest, their assumption of being able to roll over the principal proved reckless. there’s an important distinction between the debt laden companies that will get boosted and the ones that will get crushed- which is most of them, IMO. in one word, “refi”. the trend in the past 20 years has been to view short term obligations is purely _better_ (for the debtor) than longer term ones. hey, the difference in interest rate must be free money with no tradeoff, right? you gotta go B-School to get THIS kind of stupid.

plenty of companies have blown up (REITs, BDCs, and oh yeah, the investment banking industry) because although they could easily service interest, their assumption of being able to roll over the principal proved reckless.

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